Money words, decoded
The words on the news that nobody stops to explain. Tap any word to open it. No maths degree needed.
The big picture
GDP
Gross Domestic Product. The total value of everything a country makes and sells in a year: every coffee, haircut, car and new house. Think of it as the country's yearly income.
Why it matters: When GDP grows, businesses tend to hire. When it shrinks, jobs get harder to find. It's also the yardstick for debt, as in debt equal to 90% of GDP.
Recession
When the economy shrinks instead of growing, usually for six months in a row.
Why it matters: Jobs, pay rises and overtime get scarcer. It's when an emergency fund earns its keep.
Inflation
Prices rising over time. At 4% inflation, $100 of shopping costs about $104 a year later.
Why it matters: If your savings earn less than inflation, they buy less each year. There's a full section on it below.
CPI
Consumer Price Index. The official price check. The government tracks a basket of everyday things like food, fuel, rent and power, and compares the cost with a year earlier.
Why it matters: That change is the inflation number you hear on the news.
Deflation
Prices falling across the board.
Why it matters: Sounds nice, but people put off buying, businesses earn less and jobs get cut.
Central bank
The bank that runs a country's money, such as Australia's Reserve Bank (RBA), the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England. You can't open an account there.
Why it matters: It sets the main interest rate, which flows through to your loans and savings.
Interest rate (cash rate)
The price of borrowing money, shown as a yearly percentage. The central bank's rate, called the cash rate in Australia, is the starting point for mortgages, credit cards, car loans and savings accounts.
If you have a mortgage or debt: when rates go up, your repayments go up. On a big home loan, even a small rise can add a hundred dollars or more a month. When rates fall, repayments get cheaper.
If you're a saver: higher rates mean your savings account pays you more. Lower rates mean it pays less.
The catch: what matters is whether your interest beats inflation. If your savings earn 4% but prices rise 4%, you've only stood still. Earn 3% while prices rise 4% and your money buys less each year, even though the balance grows. Interest you earn is usually taxed too, so the real gain is often smaller than it looks.
Real interest rate
The interest rate after you take inflation off. A 5% savings rate with 4% inflation is a real rate of about 1%.
Why it matters: It's the honest answer to whether your savings are actually growing. A negative real rate means your money is quietly shrinking, which also makes debt a little cheaper to carry.
Money printing (quantitative easing)
When a central bank creates new money, often to buy government bonds, to push more money into the economy.
Why it matters: More money chasing the same goods can push prices up over time.
Currency debasement
When money slowly loses its buying power because more of it gets created over time. Same note, buys less. There's a full section on it below.
Why it matters: Cash left sitting still quietly shrinks.
Hyperinflation
Inflation out of control, usually defined as prices rising more than 50% in a single month.
Why it matters: Savings can be wiped out in months. See Lebanon and Zimbabwe below.
Fiat money
Money that has value because the government says it does, not because it's backed by gold. Every major currency today is fiat.
Why it matters: Its value depends on trust and on how much of it gets created.
Government money
Budget deficit
When a government spends more in a year than it collects in tax. It borrows the difference.
Why it matters: Deficits add to the national debt, and the interest on that debt is paid from your taxes.
Government debt (national debt)
All the past deficits added together. What the country owes.
Why it matters: The bigger it is, the more tax goes on interest instead of hospitals, roads and schools.
Bonds
An IOU. You lend money to a government or company, they pay you interest, and they give the money back on a set date. Governments sell bonds to fund their debt.
Why it matters: Your super or pension fund almost certainly owns some.
Bond yield
The interest a bond pays each year, shown as a percentage.
Why it matters: When yields rise, borrowing gets dearer for governments and banks, and mortgage rates often follow. That's why the news watches them.
Investing
Shares (stocks)
A tiny piece of ownership in a company.
Why it matters: If the company grows, your piece is usually worth more.
Dividend
A slice of a company's profit paid out to the people who own its shares.
Why it matters: It's income you get just for owning the share.
Stock market
Where shares are bought and sold, such as the ASX in Australia or the New York Stock Exchange.
Why it matters: Prices move every day. Over long periods, shares have historically grown more than cash in the bank, with bigger ups and downs. Buying shares is no longer just for people with a stockbroker. Share-trading apps let you buy from your phone or laptop, often with small amounts and low fees. We use Stake. That's a referral link, so Plain Sight may get a reward if you sign up. Compare a few apps before choosing; this isn't a recommendation.
Index (S&P 500, ASX 200)
A scoreboard that tracks a group of big companies.
Why it matters: When the news says the market is up 1%, it usually means an index.
Index fund and ETF
One purchase that owns a little of every company in an index. ETF means exchange-traded fund: it's bought and sold like a share.
Why it matters: Low fees and your money is spread out automatically.
Bull and bear market
Bull: prices rising for a long stretch. Bear: prices down 20% or more from their peak. Bulls charge up, bears swipe down.
Why it matters: Both always end. Selling in a panic during a bear market is how many people lock in losses.
Compound interest
Earning interest on your interest. $1,000 growing at 7% a year becomes almost $2,000 in 10 years and about $7,600 in 30, without adding a cent.
Why it matters: Time does the heavy lifting, so starting early beats starting big. It works against you on debt too.
Diversification
Not putting all your eggs in one basket. Spreading money across many companies and types of investment.
Why it matters: One bad company or market can't sink everything.
Capital gains tax
Tax on the profit when you sell something for more than you paid, such as shares, crypto or an investment property. In Australia, if you hold it for more than 12 months before selling, only half the gain is taxed. That's the 50% discount.
Why it matters: This is changing. From 1 July 2027 the 50% discount is replaced by an inflation adjustment and a minimum 30% tax on gains. It's now law. See Capital gains tax is changing near the top of this page. Across the ditch, New Zealand has no general capital gains tax, so most long-term share profits aren't taxed, though selling a residential investment property within two years can be.
Super or pension
Money set aside from your pay for retirement and invested for you. In Australia it's super, in the US a 401(k), in the UK a workplace pension.
Why it matters: Small fee differences add up to tens of thousands over a working life.
Your own money
Asset
Something you own that has value or earns money: savings, shares, a home.
Why it matters: Building assets is how wealth grows.
Liability
Something that costs you money: a loan, a credit card balance, a car on finance.
Why it matters: Liabilities quietly eat the money assets earn.
Net worth
What you own minus what you owe.
Why it matters: It's the real score. A big salary with bigger debts can mean a low net worth.
APR and comparison rate
The true yearly cost of a loan or credit card, including fees. APR means Annual Percentage Rate. In Australia, look for the comparison rate.
Why it matters: Compare these, not the headline rate in the ad.
Credit score
A number lenders use to judge how likely you are to pay them back.
Why it matters: A better score means cheaper loans. Paying bills on time is the biggest lift.
Mortgage
A loan to buy a home. The home is the security, so the lender can take it if repayments stop.
Why it matters: It's usually the biggest debt most people ever carry, so the interest rate matters a lot.
Negative equity
Owing more on your home than it's worth.
Why it matters: There's more on this in the Housing section below.
Emergency fund
Cash set aside for surprises, often enough to cover three to six months of essentials.
Why it matters: It keeps a car repair or job loss from turning into credit card debt.
Currency debasement: the slow leak
Debasement means money losing its buying power over time. Roman emperors did it by mixing cheaper metal into silver coins. Today it happens through steady inflation and new money being created. Most central banks aim for prices to rise about 2 to 3% a year on purpose. Their reasoning is that gentle inflation keeps people spending and investing instead of hoarding cash. The side effect is that a dollar left sitting still is worth a bit less every single year.
The maths nobody mentions: at 2% a year, money loses half its buying power in about 36 years. At 4% it takes about 18. In Australia, what $100 bought in 1995 costs around $220 now.
Why we don't notice
- It's too slow to feel. A few cents more on bread or petrol each year never feels like a crisis. Ten years of it does.
- Shrinkflation. Same price, smaller packet. Chocolate blocks, chip bags and toilet rolls quietly get smaller instead of dearer.
- The number goes up, so it feels like progress. Your savings balance or pay rises, but if prices rose faster, you're actually behind.
- Pay rises that only keep pace. A 3% raise in a year of 4% inflation is a pay cut in disguise.
- House prices. Part of why homes cost more is the dollar buying less, not just the house being worth more.
- Coins disappear. Australia stopped using 1 and 2 cent coins in the early 1990s because they could no longer buy anything.
What people do about it: keep an emergency fund in cash, but put long-term money somewhere it can grow faster than inflation, such as shares, property or super. Each carries its own risks, covered further down this page. This is general information, not personal financial advice.
When it goes fast: hyperinflation
Slow debasement is the everyday version. When trust in a currency collapses, it can happen in months. Two recent examples:
Lebanon, 2019 to now
What happened: For over 20 years the Lebanese pound was held at about 1,507 to the US dollar. After the crisis hit in 2019 it crashed, reaching 100,000 to the dollar on the street by March 2023. That's a loss of about 98% of its value. Banks blocked people from withdrawing their own savings.
Why: The government ran up huge debts, and the central bank kept the system going by borrowing from banks at high interest to pay earlier debts. The World Bank compared it to a Ponzi scheme. When new money stopped flowing in, it collapsed. Years of political deadlock meant the reforms needed for rescue loans weren't made.
Zimbabwe, 2007 to 2009
What happened: Prices roughly doubled every day at the peak in November 2008, when yearly inflation was estimated at 79.6 billion percent. The country printed a 100 trillion dollar note. In 2009 it gave up and started using foreign currencies like the US dollar.
Why: Farm output collapsed after rushed land seizures, so the country produced far less. The government printed money to pay for a war in the Congo, soldiers' and officials' wages, and its growing debts. Price controls then emptied shop shelves.
The common thread: too much debt, money printed to cover it, and leaders who lost people's trust. Countries like Australia, the US and the UK are nowhere near this. The lesson is knowing what protects you, not panicking.
Capital gains tax is changing in Australia
The 50% capital gains tax discount is being scrapped for gains made from 1 July 2027. It passed parliament on 25 June 2026. If you own or plan to buy shares, crypto or an investment property, this affects what you keep when you sell.
What changes
- Before: hold an asset more than 12 months and only half the profit is taxed.
- After 1 July 2027: instead of halving the profit, you only adjust what you paid for inflation (called indexation), and you still need to hold for 12 months. Profits made before 1 July 2027 can still get the old 50% discount when you sell.
- New minimum rate: capital gains are taxed at least 30%, even if your income is low. Some people on income support are exempt.
- Exceptions: newly built homes and affordable housing can keep the 50% discount. Negative gearing is limited to new builds for homes bought after 12 May 2026.
A rough example
You buy $20,000 of shares and sell five years later for $30,000, a $10,000 profit. Assume inflation of about 3% a year and ignore the Medicare levy.
| Old rules | New rules | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit that gets taxed | about $5,000 | about $6,800 |
| Tax if you earn $90,000 (30% bracket) | about $1,500 | about $2,040 |
| Tax if you earn $25,000 (part-time or retired) | about $800 | at least $2,040 |
Where the major parties stand
- Labor (government): introduced the change in the May 2026 Budget.
- Coalition (Liberal and Nationals): opposed it and voted against it.
- Greens: supported it after Labor agreed to close a loophole that let people avoid it by buying property through self-managed super funds. They had pushed for tougher changes.
What critics say
- It hits people trying to build wealth outside super: workers investing small amounts, people building a second income, small business owners who sell up.
- The 30% minimum hits lower earners hardest. A part-time worker or retiree who sells shares can pay far more than before.
- Investing becomes less rewarding just as wages struggle to keep up with prices, making it harder for the middle class to get ahead.
- Business groups and fund managers called it an attack on aspiration.
What supporters say
- The 50% discount mostly benefited wealthier people and property investors, who make the biggest gains.
- It helped push investors into housing and push up prices, against first-home buyers.
- Indexation still protects you from paying tax on gains that are just inflation.
- Wages are taxed in full, so they argue investment profits shouldn't get half off.
This is general information, not tax advice. The rules have detail and exceptions not covered here, so speak to a registered tax agent before acting.
Socialism vs trickle-down: how the money moves
Two big ideas argue over who should hold the money: the government or the market. Most countries, Australia included, sit somewhere in between. Here's how each works, where it has worked and where it hasn't.
Socialism
The idea: the community or government owns or controls more of the economy, and wealth is shared more evenly.
How the money moves: higher taxes go to the government, which pays for health, education, welfare and sometimes runs companies itself.
The range: from social democracy, where markets stay but the welfare state is big (the Nordic countries), to full state control (the Soviet Union).
Trickle-down (supply-side)
The idea: cut taxes and red tape for businesses and high earners. They invest and hire, and the benefits flow down to everyone.
How the money moves: lower taxes leave more money with businesses and investors, which in theory becomes new jobs and higher wages.
Best known for: Ronald Reagan in the US and Margaret Thatcher in the UK in the 1980s.
The track record
Government-led: wins
- Universal healthcare, such as Australia's Medicare and the UK's NHS, means a hospital visit doesn't bankrupt you.
- The Nordic countries rank near the top for happiness and have some of the lowest inequality in the world, while still running market economies.
Government-led: failures
- The Soviet Union's state-planned economy suffered chronic shortages and collapsed in 1991.
- Venezuela nationalised companies, capped prices and printed money to cover deficits. By 2017 its economy had shrunk by over a third, inflation ran into the thousands of percent and more than 2 million people had left.
Market-led: wins
- After China opened its state-run economy to markets from 1978, the World Bank says close to 800 million people rose out of extreme poverty.
- In the US, inflation fell from over 13% in 1980 to under 4% by 1983 and growth took off after Reagan's tax cuts, though many economists credit the central bank's tough interest-rate rises for taming inflation.
Market-led: failures
- Kansas cut income taxes deeply in 2012. Growth lagged its neighbours, the state ran big deficits and school funding fell. Its own Republican-controlled legislature repealed most of the cuts in 2017.
- A London School of Economics study of 18 countries over 50 years found major tax cuts for the rich raised the top 1%'s share of income, with no significant effect on growth or unemployment.
Where Australia actually sits
A mix. Medicare, the pension and welfare come from the left's playbook. Lower taxes than most rich countries, private super and open trade come from the right's. One way to measure it is how much of the economy is collected in tax:
Tax collected as a share of the whole economy
Questions to ask, whichever side is talking: Who pays for it? Who benefits most? What happened the last time someone tried it? And is the promise backed by numbers, or just a slogan?
Sources
Crypto: stablecoins, gold tokens and staying safe
Crypto is digital money that runs on a shared public record called a blockchain, without a bank in the middle. Some of it swings wildly in price. Some is built to hold steady. Here's the plain version, the risks, and how not to get burned. This isn't investing advice.
Stablecoins (USDC, USDT)
Digital dollars. Each coin is meant to be worth exactly US$1, backed by cash and short-term US government debt held by the company that issues it.
Useful for: holding US dollars, sending money overseas quickly and cheaply, and moving in and out of other crypto.
The risk: you're trusting the issuer. In March 2023, USDC briefly fell to about 87 cents when a US bank holding some of its cash collapsed. Tether, which issues USDT, was fined US$41 million in 2021 by a US regulator for misleading statements about its backing. The US passed its first stablecoin law in July 2025 to tighten the rules.
Gold tokens (PAXG)
Each PAXG token represents one troy ounce of real gold stored in London vaults by Paxos, a regulated US company.
Useful for: owning gold in small amounts without storing bars at home, and selling any time of day.
The risk: you own a claim on gold held by a company, not gold in your hand. If the company fails, you're relying on the legal structure to get it back.
The different types, and their risks
| Type | Token | What the token does | Main risks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stablecoins | USDC, USDT | Each token is a claim on US$1 held by the company that issues it. People use them as digital dollars: to save in US dollars, send money overseas, or park money between other crypto trades. | Trusting the company holding the backing. USDC briefly fell to 87 cents in 2023. |
| Gold token | PAXG | Each token is ownership of one ounce of real gold in a London vault. You can trade it any time, and large holders can swap it for physical gold. | Trusting the company holding the gold. |
| Digital gold | Bitcoin (BTC) | The token is the money itself. You can send it to anyone without a bank, and the computers that secure the network are paid in new BTC. Only 21 million will ever exist, so most people hold it as long-term savings. | Big price swings, often 50% or more from peak to bottom. |
| Platform | Ethereum (ETH) | ETH is the fuel for Ethereum, the biggest network for crypto apps and stablecoins. Every transaction or app on it is paid for in ETH, and part of each fee is destroyed, shrinking supply. Holders can lock up (stake) ETH to help secure the network and earn a yield. | Big price swings. Fees used to be high but have dropped sharply since its 2024 upgrades. Faces competition from newer, faster platforms. |
| Platform | Solana (SOL) | SOL is the fuel for Solana, a newer network built for speed and very low fees. It pays for every transaction, and holders can stake it to help secure the network and earn a yield. | Fewer, more powerful computers run the network, so it's more centralised than Ethereum. The network has gone down several times. Shorter track record. |
| App token | Uniswap (UNI) | UNI is a voting token. Holders vote on how Uniswap, an app for swapping coins straight from your own wallet, is run and how its treasury is spent. | Value depends on Uniswap staying popular, and on decisions holders vote for. Regulation. |
| App token | Hyperliquid (HYPE) | HYPE secures Hyperliquid's own blockchain: holders stake it to help run the network and earn rewards, and it pays fees on the network. A large share of the trading fees the platform earns is used to buy HYPE back from the market. | Its value is tied to trading activity on a leveraged trading platform, where people can lose everything they put in within minutes. Newer project, regulation. |
| Privacy coins | Zcash (ZEC), Monero (XMR) | The tokens are digital cash. Zcash lets you choose to hide the sender, receiver and amount; Monero hides them on every payment. | Some exchanges, including in Australia, have stopped listing them because of money-laundering rules, so they can be hard to buy or sell. |
| Meme coins | Dogecoin (DOGE) and thousands more | Mostly traded on hype. Dogecoin started as a joke in 2013 and is used for tips and small payments. Unlike Bitcoin, there's no limit: about 5 billion new coins are created every year. | The highest risk. Most meme coins lose nearly all their value, and many are outright scams. |
Even the lowest-risk crypto carries risks a bank account doesn't. Supporters of Bitcoin see its fixed supply as protection against currency debasement; critics point to its price swings and to the thousands of coins that have gone to zero.
Why AI could matter here
AI agents are starting to pay for things on their own. In February 2026, Stripe began letting businesses charge AI agents in USDC, using an open payment standard created by Coinbase called x402. Supporters expect machine-to-machine payments to become a big use for stablecoins. It's early, and nobody knows how big it gets.
Pros
- Open 24/7, no bank needed.
- Fast, cheap transfers overseas.
- Some coins have a fixed supply.
- Easy access to US dollars and gold.
Cons
- Big price swings on most coins.
- No government guarantee if a platform fails. When the FTX exchange collapsed in 2022, billions in customer money went missing.
- Scams are everywhere.
- Every sale or swap can trigger tax.
Staying safe
- Use a registered exchange. In Australia, exchanges must register with AUSTRAC, the government's financial crime agency. Check before you sign up.
- Never share your recovery phrase. That's the list of 12 or 24 words that unlocks your crypto. No real company will ever ask for it.
- Be wary of anything asking you to sign or connect your wallet. It's the most common way scammers drain accounts.
- Consider a hardware wallet for larger amounts. It keeps your crypto offline, away from hackers.
- Ignore anyone promising guaranteed returns, especially on social media or dating apps.
Tax: in Australia, crypto is treated like shares. Selling, swapping one coin for another or spending it can trigger capital gains tax, and the new rules from July 2027 apply.
New Laws, Who Voted & What It Means for You
Some made headlines. Some passed quietly. What changed, when it starts and how every party voted, now on its own page. See the new laws →
Inflation: why your money shrinks
Inflation is prices rising over time. At 4% inflation, a basket of shopping that cost $100 last year costs about $104 now. If your savings earn less than inflation, they buy less each year, even though the number in your account goes up.
- Prices rose 4.3% in the year to September 2026. Electricity rose 12.8% as government rebates ended, and fuel rose 23.6%.
- To slow inflation, the Reserve Bank (RBA) makes borrowing dearer. It lifted the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September 2026, pointing to oil supply problems from the Middle East conflict and higher fuel prices flowing into everything else.
- Higher rates cool spending, but they hit anyone with a mortgage. One rise adds about $114 a month to a $750,000 to $800,000 home loan.
- Prices rose 3.7% in the year to September 2026, up from 3.4% in August.
- To slow inflation, the Federal Reserve makes borrowing dearer. It raised its rate to 3.75% to 4% on 16 September 2026.
- The average 30-year mortgage rate is 7.40%, up from 6.27% a year earlier.
- Prices rose 3.5% in the year to September 2026 (CPI). Motor fuel was the biggest push upward.
- The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in September 2026, but 3 of its 9 members voted to raise it.
What the official inflation figure leaves out
Electricity, rents and the cost of building new homes are in Australia's CPI. But it leaves out buying an existing home, the price of land, and mortgage interest, which was taken out in 1998. The ABS treats homes and land as investments, not living costs. So when house prices and rates jump, much of the pain doesn't show up in the headline number. The ABS publishes separate "living cost" indexes that do include mortgage interest.
The US CPI doesn't include house prices or mortgage interest. Instead it estimates what homeowners' homes would rent for ("owners' equivalent rent"), using rent data. So a jump in house prices or mortgage rates doesn't show up directly in the headline number.
The headline CPI leaves out homeowners' housing costs and council tax. A second measure, CPIH, adds them in, and the ONS calls it its most comprehensive measure. CPIH was 3.6% in the year to September 2026, against 3.5% for CPI.
In Australia, the USA and the UK, the official inflation figure doesn't include house prices, because statisticians treat homes as investments rather than living costs. Australia and the USA also leave out mortgage interest. Check how your own country measures it.
Sources
- ABS: Consumer Price Index, September 2026
- RBA: Monetary policy decision, 29 September 2026
- Domain: Low-deposit first-home buyers squeezed (October 2026)
- ABS: How housing is measured in the CPI
- RBA: Housing in the Consumer Price Index
- FXStreet, reporting BLS: US CPI rose to 3.7% in September 2026
- Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, 16 September 2026
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage rates hold steady at 7.40%
- BLS: Owners' equivalent rent and rent
- ONS: Consumer price inflation, September 2026
- Bank of England: September 2026 decision
Gold, property and Bitcoin: hedges with their own risks
People buy these to protect against inflation because their supply is limited and governments can't print more of them. Over long periods each has often beaten cash. But none of them is a safe place to park money you might need soon. All three can fall hard and stay down for years, and all three have also recovered from big falls before. Below are the numbers, then what the optimists and the sceptics are saying.
| Asset | Recent high | What happened next |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | US$5,602 an ounce, January 2026 | Fell nearly 30% within months, to a month-end low of about US$4,012 in June. It has recovered only part of that and sits at about US$4,165 (17 October), roughly 26% below the high. After its 1980 peak, gold fell 71% and took about 28 years to get back to its old record. |
| Australian homes | National record, March 2026 | Six monthly falls in a row, 5.2% below the record by the end of September. Sydney is 8.6% below its peak. No recovery yet. |
| Bitcoin | About US$126,000, October 2025 | Fell to about US$58,000 in June 2026, a fall of more than half. Since then it has recovered about 40%, to roughly US$81,000 to US$82,000 (18 October), but that is still about 35% below the record. |
Where gold and Bitcoin finished each month
| Month-end | Gold (US$ an ounce) | Bitcoin (US$) |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | 4,354 | 87,498 |
| Jan 2026 | 4,890 | 78,648 |
| Feb | 5,279 | 66,968 |
| Mar | 4,518 | 68,222 |
| Apr | 4,561 | 76,306 |
| May | 4,539 | 73,575 |
| Jun | 4,012 | 58,524 |
| Jul | 4,101 | 62,826 |
| Aug | 4,460 | 78,563 |
| Sep | 4,185 | 83,556 |
| 18 Oct (latest) | 4,165 | 81,323 |
Closing prices, so they sit inside the highs and lows above. Gold fell and then only partly recovered. Bitcoin has bounced back much further, though it is still well below its record. For homes, Cotality publishes on the first working day of each month: values fell 0.4% in June, 0.7% in July, 0.9% in August and 1.1% in September. This table is updated each month.
- Property is usually bought with borrowed money. That magnifies gains and losses, and you pay interest, rates or property taxes, insurance and upkeep while you hold it. It's also slow and costly to sell.
- Gold pays no income. You only make money if someone pays more for it later.
- Bitcoin is often called "digital gold" because its supply is limited (no more than 21 million coins will ever exist) and, unlike gold, it can't be dug out of the ground. But it has no earnings or rent behind it. Its price is set by what the next buyer will pay, which is why it swings so much.
- Quantum computing is seen by some experts as a possible future risk to Bitcoin, because a powerful enough quantum computer could in theory break the security that protects wallets. Developers are working on fixes (a proposal called BIP-360 is under review), and experts disagree on how soon it could matter, from five to seven years to a decade or more.
- No single hedge works every time. That's why spreading money across different things (diversifying) is the standard approach.
What the optimists and the sceptics say
These are forecasts and opinions, not facts. Bulls and bears have both been wrong this year, and several of the targets below are well above today's prices.
Gold
- Peter Schiff (chief economist at Euro Pacific Capital, a long-time gold bull) said in March 2026 that the roughly 27% fall from January's record was the best buying chance since 2008. He compares it with 2008, when gold fell about 32% and then rose 178% over three years, and sets a target of US$11,400. He expects a recession to push the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and says falling real rates (interest rates after inflation) are good for gold.
- Banks (July 2026): JPMorgan US$6,000 by the end of the year; UBS US$5,200 over 12 months; Morgan Stanley US$5,200 if more money flows into gold funds; Goldman Sachs US$4,900 (cut from US$5,400), saying the fall "does not mean its long-term bull case is over". Bank of America is the cautious one at US$4,800.
- Central banks keep buying. They bought a record 289 tonnes in the June quarter, up 62% on a year earlier, with Poland and China the biggest buyers (World Gold Council). Part of the reason cited is that lower prices encouraged buying.
- The sceptic's point: gold was about US$4,165 on 17 October, below every bank target above, and pays no income.
Property
- Commonwealth Bank senior economist Trent Saunders (June 2026) expects flat prices in 2026, then growth of about 3% in 2027, pointing to a shortage of homes, expected rate cuts in 2027, better affordability after the fall and strong first home buyer demand. CBA sees the negative gearing and capital gains tax changes as a one-off hit of about 5%, after which growth returns to roughly its old path.
- Australian Property Institute survey of 384 property experts (October 2026): prices fall 8% to 11% from the March peak, so roughly halfway there, with a recovery starting around mid-2027. Some respondents expect a rebound at the start of 2027 and others a slump into 2028.
- Martin North (principal of Digital Finance Analytics, a well-known bear on Australian property), in his weekly video ("Will Australian Property Follow The Kiwi Path?", published 16 October 2026), said Australia appears to be "in the foothills of what may well be a very and perhaps most significant correction in the past 40 years". He argues it is following New Zealand's path: he cites New Zealand prices still about 17% below their peak nearly five years on (Wellington down 29.5% and Auckland more than 24%, before inflation), and says that "unless migration amps up again or the government does something big to stimulate the market or rates get cut dramatically, it is highly likely that the falling trends will continue". His conclusion: "I think the Kiwi path looks highly likely." He pointed to Cotality figures showing a slow market: the average auction clearance rate at 48.3% in early October against 64.4% in late February, homes taking a median 41 days to sell against 26 a year earlier, and total listings up 19.1% on last year. On 16 October he also said that mortgage stress was at a "tipping point": his latest index, covering 77 postcodes, shows households in mortgage stress up 7.5% in three months to 450,539 and up 21% on a year earlier, and Roy Morgan found 32.3% of mortgage holders at risk of stress, just below an 18-year high. DFA's figures are its own modelling and use a wider definition of "stress" than the Reserve Bank's (about 2% of variable-rate borrowers can't cover repayments and essentials), so the numbers aren't directly comparable. Note that his "Kiwi path" is a long, slow downtrend, not a sudden crash.
Property
- Savills (June 2026 forecast) expects UK mainstream house prices to fall 2% in 2026, with the biggest falls in London and the South East, then rise 2.5% in 2027 and 5% in 2028. It cut its 2026 forecast from growth of 2%, citing affordability, higher mortgage costs and economic uncertainty.
- Knight Frank (Tom Bill, June 2026) forecasts minimal UK price growth of 1.5% this year, a downgrade but still above zero.
- Nationwide (chief economist Robert Gardner, September 2026): prices were up 0.8% on a year earlier, down from 1.6% in August, and fell 0.2% in the month (average price £274,251). He expects activity to "regain momentum in the quarters ahead" if the energy-price shock fades.
- The sceptic's point: RBC Capital Markets analyst Anthony Codling said UK house prices are "holding on by their fingertips". Savills and Knight Frank disagree on whether 2026 ends below or above zero, which shows how uncertain the forecasts are.
Property
- Zillow (June 2026) forecasts US home values will change by -0.2% between May 2026 and May 2027, which is essentially flat.
- National Association of Realtors (chief economist Lawrence Yun, November 2025) projected home prices to rise about 4% in 2026, saying "home prices nationwide are in no danger of declining". This forecast is nearly a year old, and the NAR is the realtors' own trade body, which has an interest in a healthy market.
- The sceptic's point: the gap between Zillow's flat forecast and the NAR's 4% shows how far apart the experts are. With 30-year mortgage rates around 7.4%, affordability is the main brake.
Property
- We only have sourced property forecasts for Australia, the USA and the UK. For anywhere else, look for forecasts from your own country's central bank, statistics office and property bodies rather than overseas banks.
Bitcoin
- Bernstein (analyst Gautam Chhugani) targets US$125,000 by the end of 2026 (cut from US$150,000 in September), US$150,000 by mid-2027, and a possible peak of US$300,000 before a big downturn. He points to Bitcoin's past cycles, mining costs near US$78,000 and loose money pushing investors towards assets in limited supply.
- Standard Chartered targets US$100,000 by the end of 2026 (cut from US$150,000 in February). Its analyst Geoff Kendrick has said that could prove conservative and that Bitcoin could retest US$126,000.
- Citi raised its 12-month target to US$113,000 on 2 October, from US$82,000 in July, expecting about US$5 billion of new money into Bitcoin funds.
- The sceptic's point: all three banks cut their targets this year, and forecasts made at the start of 2026 were much higher than where Bitcoin is now. Past forecasts are a poor guide.
Sources
- IANS, citing DSP Netra: Gold down 30% from peak (July 2026)
- Savills: Mainstream residential forecasts (June 2026)
- Property Industry Eye: Will house prices fall in 2026? (8 June 2026)
- Nationwide: Annual house price growth halves in September (2026)
- ResiClub: Zillow updated home price forecast (30 June 2026)
- National Association of Realtors: 2026 forecast (14 November 2025)
- Domain, citing Cotality: property values (October 2026)
- CNBC: Bitcoin cracks $60,000 (June 2026)
- Crypto Briefing: Bitcoin 32% below its record one year later (October 2026)
- Alpha Vantage: monthly closing prices for gold (XAU/USD) and Bitcoin (BTC/USD), to 18 October 2026
- Cotality: Australian housing values down for the sixth straight month in September
- Outlook Business: Peter Schiff sees gold at US$11,400 (March 2026)
- investingLive: Wall Street splits on gold, forecasts from US$4,800 to US$6,000 (July 2026)
- World Gold Council: Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026, central banks
- Real Estate Business: Housing prices to rebound in 2027, CBA economist (June 2026)
- CommBank newsroom: House prices tipped to keep sliding for another year, API survey (October 2026)
- Martin North, Digital Finance Analytics (YouTube): Will Australian Property Follow The Kiwi Path? (16 October 2026)
- Mortgage Professional Australia: Mortgage stress climbs 7.5% as analyst warns of a tipping point (16 October 2026)
- Broker News: Financial stress soars as DFA flags 100%-stress suburbs (May 2026)
- 24/7 Wall St: Citi, Standard Chartered and Bernstein cut their Bitcoin targets (October 2026)
- Decrypt: Bitcoin takes a step towards a quantum fix as experts diverge on urgency (February 2026)
Housing and small deposits
Since 1 October 2025, any first home buyer, at any income, can buy with a 5% deposit under the government's Home Guarantee Scheme, as long as the home is under a price cap. Over 102,000 people used it in the past year, and over 280,000 since 2022.
- In the first six months of the expanded scheme, homes under the price caps rose 6.7%, nearly double the 3.6% rise for dearer homes. Researchers at Cotality suggest the scheme helped push up prices of cheaper homes.
- Since then prices have turned. By the end of September 2026, 97% of capital city suburbs had fallen in value over three months.
- Interest rates have gone up four times. On a $750,000 to $800,000 loan, those rises add about $450 a month, or about $5,400 a year.
When interest rates rise, do people default?
So far, not much, but defaults usually show up late. The numbers so far:
- Loans 90 or more days behind have risen a little in 2026 but are still around pre-pandemic levels (Reserve Bank, October 2026). Earlier RBA research found that fewer than 1% of all home loans were that far behind in 2024.
- About 2% of borrowers on variable rates don't earn enough to cover their repayments and essentials. The Reserve Bank expects that to stay a little under 2% for some time. Most of them have savings to cover at least six months, and the typical borrower has offset or redraw savings covering more than a year of repayments.
- It's a lagging measure. RBA Governor Michele Bullock says the full effect of a rate rise can take 12, perhaps 18 months, to flow through. Four rises this year may not be showing in the figures yet.
- Who falls behind first: after rates rose from 2022, RBA research found the highest arrears among borrowers with small deposits relative to their loan and among lower-income borrowers. Recent first home buyers were not more likely than others to fall behind at that time, but that was before this year's rises and price falls.
- Hot spots: S&P Global Ratings found 2.99% of loans in Pakenham, Victoria, at least 30 days behind, against 0.85% nationally (October 2026).
Could prices crash, and who pays?
- Forecasters expect further falls, not a collapse. HSBC forecasts a 13% fall from peak to trough across the capital cities. AMP expects 10% to 15%. AMP's chief economist Shane Oliver describes a "perfect storm" of investor tax changes, rising rates and a risk of forced sales if unemployment rises, and says the risks are on the downside.
- The Reserve Bank's tough test: if prices fell another 20%, only around 5% of mortgages would be in negative equity, and negative equity alone doesn't cause defaults if people can still make repayments. In a very bad downturn (unemployment 6.3%, inflation 7%, cash rate 5.6%) plus a further 20% price fall, about 5% of borrowers would be at higher risk of default, only a little above the 2023 peak. The RBA says the main risks to the financial system come from overseas.
- So a crash needs a trigger. The Reserve Bank's testing shows falling prices on their own don't cause defaults; trouble comes when people also lose income, and AMP names rising unemployment as the main risk. Nobody can say in advance how far prices will fall.
- Where taxpayers come in. Under the 5% deposit scheme, the government guarantees up to 15% of the home's value if a borrower defaults, so part of any loss on those loans would fall on taxpayers. Cotality's Tim Lawless has said that encouraging small-deposit buying cuts across the lending standards set by the banking regulator (APRA). Whether governments would step in with more help in a deeper downturn is a political decision, and nobody can know in advance.
- Estimated so far: realestate.com.au estimates about 1,143 scheme households were likely in negative equity in September (2.4% of scheme buyers), up from 89 in July.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.40% in mid-October 2026, up from 6.27% a year earlier. On a big loan, a rise like that adds hundreds of dollars to monthly repayments for new buyers and anyone whose rate resets.
Since July 2025, the UK's mortgage guarantee scheme has been permanent. It lets first-time buyers and home movers borrow with a deposit as small as 5%.
What negative equity means
Negative equity is owing more than your home is worth. With a 5% deposit, a fall of a little over 5% can put you there, and buying costs make the gap bigger. It only bites if you have to sell, for example after a job loss or a break-up, because the sale won't cover the loan. Australia-wide, the government says negative equity is at historic lows, citing the RBA. The risk sits mostly with recent buyers on small deposits.
Questions worth asking before you buy on a small deposit: could you still pay if rates rose again? Do you have savings for emergencies on top of the deposit? Could you hold on for years if prices fell?
Sources
- ABC: First home buyer scheme fuelling price rises at the lower end (April 2026)
- Domain: Low-deposit first-home buyers squeezed as suburb drops deepen (October 2026)
- RBA: Financial Stability Review, October 2026, Resilience of households and businesses
- ABC: RBA relaxed about housing downturn but deeply worried by AI and bonds (October 2026)
- Kalkine: Arrears edge up but hover near pre-pandemic levels (October 2026)
- RBA Bulletin: Recent drivers of housing loan arrears (July 2024)
- The Adviser, citing S&P Global Ratings: Borrower pressure builds as arrears lift (October 2026)
- MacroBusiness, citing realestate.com.au, HSBC, AMP and Cotality (October 2026)
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage rates hold steady at 7.40%
- GOV.UK: 2025 mortgage guarantee scheme
Government debt: everyone's got it
Governments borrow by selling bonds, which are IOUs that pay interest. The buyers are banks, pension and super funds, and investors at home and overseas. When a government spends more than it collects in tax, it borrows the difference, and the interest is paid from future taxes.
- Worldwide, government debt was just under 94% of the world's yearly income (GDP) in 2025. The IMF expects it to reach 100% by 2029.
- Australia's federal gross debt is expected to reach about $1.1 trillion in 2027-28. That's about $37,000 for every person. Interest is the fastest-growing big item in the federal budget.
- US federal debt held by the public is about 101% of GDP in 2026. The Congressional Budget Office projects 120% by 2036, higher than ever before (the old record was 106% in 1946). Interest is projected to grow from 3.3% to 4.6% of GDP.
- UK public sector net debt was £3,005.0 billion at the end of September 2026, or 94.0% of GDP. Debt interest totalled £60.8 billion in the first six months of the financial year.
- Every dollar spent on interest is a dollar not spent on hospitals, schools or tax cuts.
- Inflation quietly helps borrowers, including governments: debt stays the same in dollars while prices and wages rise, so the debt gets smaller in real terms. Savers pay for that.
Where your tax goes, and do we pay a lot?
Of every $100 the federal government spends in 2026-27:
Social security includes the age pension, family payments, the NDIS and unemployment payments.
Is it a high-tax country?
The usual yardstick is total tax as a share of the economy (GDP). The average across the 38 OECD countries is 34.1%.
- Australia collects about 29.9%, below the average.
- Compulsory super isn't counted as tax, though it's money taken from your pay. One estimate that adds it in puts Australia at about 34.5%, close to the average.
- Income tax is a bigger share of our tax than in most countries. One reason is that most other countries also charge separate "social security" taxes on wages, and Australia doesn't. That's a big part of why income tax feels heavy here.
- The USA collected 25.6% in 2024, well below the average. Americans pay more privately for things other countries fund through tax, such as health insurance.
- The UK collects about 34.4%, right around the average.
Paying less tax, legally
Using the tax rules the way they're meant to be used is legal and smart. Wealthier people do it as a matter of course. Here are the common ways most workers can use too.
- Extra super contributions. Money you put into super from your pre-tax pay, including salary sacrifice, is usually taxed at 15% instead of your normal tax rate. The yearly limit, which includes your employer's payments, is $30,000 for 2025-26 and $32,500 for 2026-27. The catch: you generally can't touch it until retirement age.
- Hold investments for over 12 months. If you sell shares or property you've owned for at least a year, only half the profit is taxed.
- Claim what you're entitled to. Work-related costs you pay yourself, like uniforms, tools, courses and some travel, can be claimed. Keep receipts.
- Retirement accounts. For 2026 you can put up to $24,500 into a 401(k) through work and $7,500 into an IRA, with tax breaks either now or in retirement depending on the account type.
- Hold investments for more than a year. Long-term capital gains are taxed at 0%, 15% or 20% depending on your income, instead of your normal income tax rate.
- ISAs. You can put up to £20,000 a year into ISAs, and the growth and income are tax-free. From April 2027, under-65s can put no more than £12,000 of that into a Cash ISA.
- Pensions. Pension contributions get tax relief up to an annual allowance of £60,000, or 100% of your earnings if lower.
- Use your capital gains allowance. The first £3,000 of gains each year is tax-free.
Planning, avoidance and evasion
Tax planning is using the rules as intended, like the examples above. Tax avoidance is a contrived scheme set up mainly to dodge tax, and tax offices can cancel the benefit and add penalties. Tax evasion is hiding income or lying, and it's a crime. If someone is selling you a clever tax trick, ask a registered tax professional first.
Offshoring: how it works, and who it's really for
Offshoring means moving money, a business, or yourself to another country, usually to pay less tax. Big companies do it by shifting profits to low-tax countries, which the OECD calls base erosion and profit shifting. For individuals it's far harder than social media makes it look.
The two very different versions
- Companies: multinationals use gaps between countries' tax rules to book profits where tax is lowest. Much of it is legal, which is why governments keep changing the rules.
- Individuals: the main legal route is genuinely changing where you're a tax resident, which usually means actually moving countries. Simply opening an overseas account or company while you still live at home generally doesn't cut your tax. Rules such as controlled foreign company laws bring that income back into your home tax return.
Possible upsides
- Some countries charge little or no personal income tax, such as the United Arab Emirates.
- Business owners trading internationally may legitimately structure parts of their business overseas.
- A lower cost of living in some countries can stretch savings further.
- Lifestyle, if you actually want to live there.
The downsides
- You usually have to really leave: live elsewhere most of the year and cut ties like your home, job and main bank accounts.
- Leaving can trigger tax on the way out. In Australia, when you stop being a resident you can be treated as having sold many of your overseas assets.
- Banks in over 100 countries automatically report foreign accounts back to tax offices, so hiding money doesn't work.
- Professional advice and two sets of paperwork cost thousands every year.
- You can lose access to things like Medicare and some government support, and you're far from family.
- US citizens are taxed on worldwide income wherever they live, so moving rarely helps them.
Who it's realistically for
People genuinely moving overseas for work or life, business owners with real international operations, and high earners who can afford specialist tax lawyers and accountants in both countries. For most people on a regular income, the cost and upheaval outweigh the savings.
What it generally involves
- Getting advice from a registered tax adviser who specialises in international tax, in both countries.
- Getting the right to live in the new country: a visa or residency, which can take months or years.
- Actually moving: setting up a home there and spending most of the year there.
- Cutting ties at home, and passing your old country's residency tests. In Australia these look at things like where you live, how many days you spend here and where your family is.
- Telling your tax office, lodging a final return as a resident and sorting out tax on assets you hold when you leave.
- Keeping records and filing correctly in both countries every year after.
Red flag: anyone selling an offshore account, trust or company as a quick way to cut your tax while you keep living at home. Tax offices share information automatically, and the penalties are serious. This is general information, not tax advice.
Investing basics
- Compound interest is earning returns on your returns. $10,000 earning 3% a year, compounded monthly, grows to about $11,616 in five years. The longer you leave it, the faster it grows.
- Fees matter. A 1% yearly fee sounds small, but it comes out every year, including from the growth.
- Beating the market is hard, even for professionals. Over 15 years, 87% of funds that pick Australian shares did worse than the ASX 200 index. That's why many people use index funds, which simply buy the whole market at low cost.
- Time in the market beats timing the market. Nobody reliably knows when prices will rise or fall.
Pay off debt, or buy assets?
Most of us grew up being told to clear our debts first. Others argue the opposite: don't rush to pay off debt, buy things that grow instead. Both sides have a point. Which one fits depends mostly on the interest rate, how secure your income is and how you'd cope if things went wrong.
What Simon Dixon said on Impact Theory
Simon Dixon is a former investment banker, co-founder and CEO of the investment platform BnkToTheFuture, and author of the book Bank to the Future. He talked about this with Tom Bilyeu on Impact Theory in October 2026, in the episode "America Can Never Pay Off Its Debt. Here's Who Gets Rich From That".
- He called "spend less than you earn, invest the difference in assets" "the most simple rule in finance".
- He argued that most people's debt doesn't buy assets but pays for everyday living, and that wages haven't kept up with inflation, so people fall further behind.
- Speaking to people deep in debt who say they can't find $100 a month to invest, he said: "Consequences, not financial advice, but you need to stop paying your debt and you need to start investing in assets today, this month."
- He suggested putting some money every month into things like gold, shares and Bitcoin, and doing it consistently.
In an earlier interview, with Peter McCormack in January 2026, he said he had once been "broken in debt", paid it all off and now has none, and that "the more you can avoid debt" the better. So his point reads less as "debt is good" and more as "start owning assets now, rather than waiting until every debt is gone".
The case for paying debt off first
- It's a guaranteed return. Every dollar you pay off saves you that debt's interest rate, with no risk. Investments can't promise that.
- Expensive debt costs more than shares usually earn. The average credit card rate was 18.61% in Australia (May 2026), 22.36% in the USA (August 2026) and 35.8% APR in the UK (February 2026). Over the last 30 years, Australian shares averaged 9.0% a year and US shares 10.8%.
- Official guides agree on the order. Australia's Moneysmart suggests paying the minimum on everything and putting extra on the debt with the highest fees and interest. The UK's MoneyHelper says to deal with expensive debt and build an emergency fund first, and that "you'll rarely earn more on your savings than you'll pay on your borrowings".
- Missing repayments has a cost. Late or missed payments can be reported and lower your credit score, and if you fall behind on a secured loan like a mortgage, you risk losing your home.
The case for buying assets now
- Time in the market compounds. Over the 30 years to June 2026, Australian shares returned 9.0% a year and US shares 10.8%, against 4.0% for cash and 2.7% inflation. World shares beat inflation by about 6.6% a year from 1900 to 2025. Waiting years to start means missing those years.
- Inflation shrinks fixed debts. Most debt is set in dollars, so when prices rise you repay with money that buys less. The St. Louis Fed describes this as shifting wealth from lenders to borrowers, though it also warns inflation tends to push future interest rates up.
- Some debt is very cheap. About 1 in 5 US mortgages were below 3% in late 2025, locked in years ago. That's below the Federal Reserve's own interest rate today (3.75–4%).
- Even cautious guides make exceptions. MoneyHelper says low-cost or carefully planned credit can justify building savings instead of repaying early, and warns against missing out on employer pension contributions.
When "buy assets instead" can make sense, according to its supporters
- The debt is cheap and fixed, so its rate can't jump. Many people compare it with Vanguard's forecast that US shares will return 4.2% to 6.2% a year over the next 10 years.
- Supporters usually point to assets with a long record of growing faster than inflation, spread across many companies rather than one single bet.
- You already have an emergency buffer, your income is steady, and you can leave the money invested for years.
- You keep making every required repayment.
The risks
- High-interest debt beats almost any investment. At 18% to 36%, credit card interest is well above what shares have returned in the long run.
- Forecasts are lower than the past. Vanguard expects 4.2% to 6.2% a year from US shares over the next decade, well below the 10.8% of the past 30 years.
- Assets can fall while the debt stays the same. In the 2007–09 crisis, the S&P 500 fell 57%, US home prices fell about 30%, and US unemployment reached 10%. Many people lost value and income at the same time. Over the last 30 years, Australian shares' worst financial year was −22.1%.
- Variable rates can rise. Australian rates have gone up four times, and the average variable home loan rate is now 6.75%.
- Borrowing to invest magnifies losses. In a Moneysmart example, a 20% fall in a part-borrowed portfolio halves the investor's own money, and margin loans can force a sale at the worst time.
- Stopping repayments entirely can mean fees, a damaged credit score, collections, or losing a home or car that secures the loan.
Where both sides meet
Both sides agree on spending less than you earn. MoneyHelper's general order is: keep up your repayments, sort out priority and expensive debts, build an emergency fund, don't miss free employer pension contributions, then invest money you won't need for the next few years. Where cheap debt is concerned, people reasonably disagree. The quick check-up at the top of this page compares your own rates with these figures.
Sources
- Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu: Simon Dixon, "America Can Never Pay Off Its Debt" (8 October 2026)
- Transcript of the Impact Theory episode
- Transcript: Simon Dixon with Peter McCormack (January 2026)
- London Speaker Bureau: Simon Dixon profile
- Canstar, using RBA data: average credit card rate 18.61% (July 2026)
- Federal Reserve (FRED): US credit card rate on accounts paying interest
- Moneyfacts: credit card APR hits 20-year high (February 2026)
- Vanguard: 2026 Index Chart, 30 years to June 2026
- WealthBriefing, on the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026
- Vanguard: 10-year return forecasts (June 2026)
- St. Louis Fed: Inflation and the real value of debt
- National Mortgage Professional, on Realtor.com analysis of FHFA data (January 2026)
- Moneysmart: Get debt under control
- MoneyHelper: Pay off debt, save or invest first?
- Moneysmart: Buy now pay later services
- Moneysmart: Borrowing to invest
- Federal Reserve History: The Great Recession
- Australian Broker, citing Canstar: average variable rate 6.75% (October 2026)
The S&P 500 is held up by a few giants
The S&P 500 is the index of America's 500 biggest listed companies, and it's in most retirement, super and index funds around the world. It's weighted by size, so the biggest companies count the most.
- In June 2026 the 10 biggest companies made up 37.9% of the whole index. In 2019 it was 22.8%. It peaked at 40.7% in December 2025.
- Nvidia alone was 7.5% of the index.
- Analysts at Apollo describe this concentration as being at record highs, with the tech sector's share as high as during the 1990s dot-com bubble.
What it means: if you own "the market", a big slice of your money is riding on a handful of tech companies, mostly linked to AI. That isn't a prediction of a crash. It's a reason to know what you actually own.
Why America matters to everyone
Wherever you live, your money is tied to the USA more than you might think.
- Shares. US companies make up 64.2% of the MSCI All Country World Index, the most common measure of the world's share markets. A "global" fund in your super or pension is mostly American.
- The dollar. The US dollar makes up 57.1% of the money central banks hold in reserve. That's down from about 71% in 2000, but no other currency comes close.
- Debt. US government debt is projected to reach a record 120% of GDP by 2036. Because so much of the world's savings sits in US shares, bonds and dollars, what happens to America's debt, interest rates and tech giants ripples out to everyone else.
AI, jobs, deflation and basic income
This is where the big predictions live, so here are the arguments and the evidence side by side.
- Jobs. The IMF estimates almost 40% of jobs worldwide, and about 60% in rich countries, are exposed to AI. About half of those may benefit through higher productivity. For the rest, AI may do key tasks, which could mean fewer jobs or lower pay.
- Deflation. Some argue AI will make many goods and services far cheaper, so prices fall. So far that isn't showing up in the data: inflation is 4.3% in Australia, 3.7% in the USA and 3.5% in the UK, driven largely by energy and housing.
- Universal basic income means a regular payment to everyone, no strings attached. Finland trialled it in 2017 and 2018, paying €560 a month to 2,000 unemployed people. They reported better wellbeing and less stress (17% highly stressed, against 25% without it), but in the first year it made no difference to whether they found work.
Raoul Pal: "six years to build wealth"
Raoul Pal is a former Goldman Sachs executive and hedge fund manager with over 30 years in global markets. He has published the research service Global Macro Investor since 2005 and co-founded Real Vision, a financial education platform.
His argument is that AI and technology will change society so quickly over the next few years that nobody can say what comes after, so this window matters for building wealth, because money gives you options. His suggestion for ordinary people is to put a set slice of your wages, around 10%, into crypto and technology and hold it long term, and to get your fear of missing out under control first.
What does he mean by "crypto"? In his public comments the focus is on large, established coins, mainly Bitcoin and Ethereum, and also Solana. He has been reported as warning that trading altcoins (any coin other than Bitcoin) outside the top 10 "carries significant risk". He has also named some smaller coins he holds himself, so check exactly what any suggestion includes. There are thousands of tokens, most far riskier than the large ones, and meme tokens sit at the riskiest end.
It's a serious thesis from an experienced investor, and many people disagree with it. Like any forecast, no one can know if it will play out. Weigh it against the risks on this page, and move at a pace that lets you sleep at night.
Sources
- IMF: AI will transform the global economy
- VATT Finland: Basic income experiment results
- Real Vision: Raoul Pal
- Truflation: Raoul Pal on the next six years
- Investing.com, from Benzinga: Raoul Pal on blue-chip cryptos over altcoins (2023)
- CoinEdition via Bitget: Raoul Pal names coins to watch (May 2026)
Scams and finfluencers
- Australians lost $2.18 billion to scams in 2025. Investment scams were the biggest category, at $837.7 million.
- In April 2026, the regulator ASIC warned four social media "finfluencers" suspected of giving unlicensed financial advice, including promising guaranteed returns. Most 18 to 28 year olds get money information from social media.
- Americans reported losing $15.9 billion to fraud in 2025. Investment scams caused the biggest losses, at $7.9 billion.
- UK payment fraud losses reached £1.28 billion in 2025. Investment fraud losses rose 40% to £221.5 million.
- Investment scams are the costliest kind of scam in Australia and the USA, and the fastest-growing in the UK.
Red flags: guaranteed or very high returns, pressure to act fast, payment in crypto or gift cards, a "secret" system, a celebrity endorsement you can't confirm, and anyone asking for remote access to your computer or phone. Only licensed advisers can give personal financial advice in Australia, and you can check their licence on ASIC's Moneysmart website. You can check a broker or adviser on FINRA BrokerCheck. Check any firm on the FCA register before you invest.
Free, independent help
- Moneysmart (moneysmart.gov.au): the government's free money guides, calculators and adviser register.
- National Debt Helpline, 1800 007 007: free financial counsellors who can negotiate with lenders for you.
- Scamwatch (scamwatch.gov.au): check or report a scam.
- Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (consumerfinance.gov): free guides and complaints about banks and lenders.
- NFCC, 800-388-2227 (nfcc.org): the oldest non-profit financial counselling organisation in the US. Ask about any fees up front.
- ReportFraud.ftc.gov: report a scam to the Federal Trade Commission.
- FINRA BrokerCheck (brokercheck.finra.org): check a broker or adviser before you hand over money.
- MoneyHelper (moneyhelper.org.uk): free, government-backed money and pensions guidance.
- StepChange, 0800 138 1111 (stepchange.org): free debt advice from a charity.
- National Debtline, 0808 808 4000 (nationaldebtline.org): free, independent debt advice.
- FCA register (register.fca.org.uk): check a firm is authorised before you invest.
- Look for your government's financial regulator or consumer protection agency, and a free, not-for-profit debt advice service. Be wary of anyone who charges to "fix" your debts or credit score: free help usually exists.
Want to see how money stress is affecting the rest of your life? Try our free Health Self-Assessment.